Sains Malaysiana 53(12)(2024): 3277-3289

http://doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2024-5312-12

 

Impak Perubahan Iklim dan Jaminan Keselamatan Makanan: Cabaran Pengeluaran Padi di Malaysia

(Impact of Climate Change and Ensuring Food Security: Challenges for Rice Production in Malaysia)

 

SHAIDATUL AZDAWIYAH ABDUL TALIB^1,2,*, WAN MOHD RAZI IDRIS², LIEW JU NENG², TUKIMAT LIHAN², MUHAMMAD ZAMIR ABDUL RASID¹

 

¹Institut Penyelidikan dan Kemajuan Pertanian Malaysia (MARDI), Ibu Pejabat MARDI, Persiaran MARDI-UPM, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
²Jabatan Sains Bumi dan Alam Sekitar, Fakulti Sains dan Teknologi, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia

 

Received: 4 June 2024/Accepted: 15 August 2024

 

Abstrak

Isu perubahan iklim global menjadi perhatian masyarakat dunia ekoran impak negatif terhadap trend cuaca yang menjurus kepada berlakunya peristiwa ekstrim. Di Malaysia, peningkatan suhu dan perubahan corak taburan hujan mengakibatkan berlakunya banjir dan kemarau, yang turut memberi kesan kepada kawasan pertanian termasuklah tanaman padi. Lembaga Kemajuan Pertanian Muda (MADA) merupakan kawasan jelapang terbesar di Malaysia turut berdepan dengan permasalahan ini. Oleh itu, perubahan corak taburan hujan serta suhu persekitaran perlu dianalisis ekoran impak terhadap hasil tanaman yang turut akan melibatkan isu jaminan keselamatan makanan. Data iklim cerapan (1991-2020) dan unjuran perubahan iklim (CMIP5) di bawah senario RCP 4.5 dan RCP 8.5 dianalisis bagi 7 lokasi terpilih di MADA, merangkumi ujian Mann-Kendall (MK) dan kecerunan Sen (SS), indeks keamatan hujan (PCI), indeks anomali hujan (RAI), indeks kerpasan piawai (SPI) dan anomali suhu. Unjuran dibahagikan kepada 3 tempoh masa; awal abad (2020-2046), pertengahan abad (2047-2073) dan akhir abad (2074-2099). Hasil ujian MK dan SS mendapati jumlah taburan hujan tahunan dan kedua-dua musim penanaman dijangka akan terus meningkat dengan corak hujan yang tidak sekata pada musim utama. Tiada kemarau dijangkakan di MADA dengan peningkatan sehingga 2.74 °C (RCP 4.5) dan 4.83 °C (RCP 8.5). Unjuran hasil DSSAT 4.8 menggambarkan purata hasil tanaman padi berkurangan sekitar 19% - 25% (RCP 4.5) dan sekitar 20% - 27% (RCP 8.5) berbanding hasil yang direkodkan pada tahun 2022. Sehubungan itu, hasil kajian ini dapat membantu para penyelidik dan penggubal dasar merangka strategi adaptasi dan mitigasi terbaik bagi menjamin keselamatan makanan dan pembangunan mapan.

 

Kata kunci: Hujan; perubahan iklim; suhu; unjuran hasil padi

 

Abstract

Climate change issues has become a concern of the global community due to the negative impacts on weather trends, leading to extreme events. In Malaysia, temperature increase, and rainfall patterns changes have resulted in floods and droughts, which also affect agricultural areas including rice crop. The Muda Agricultural Development Authority (MADA), being the largest granary area in Malaysia, also faces this issue. Therefore, studies regarding changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns is crucial due to the impact on crop yields, which involves food security. Climate observation data (1991-2020) and climate change projections (CMIP5) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were analyzed for 7 selected locations in MADA, including the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope (SS), precipitation concentration index (PCI), rainfall anomaly index (RAI), standardized precipitation index (SPI), and temperature anomaly. Projections were divided into three time periods: early century (2020-2046), mid-century (2047-2073), and late century (2074-2099). The MK and SS tests found total annual rainfall and both planting seasons will increase with irregular rainfall pattern during main season. No drought is expected in MADA with temperature increase up to 2.74 °C (RCP 4.5) and 4.83 °C (RCP 8.5). DSSAT 4.8 yield projections indicate a reduction in average yield of approximately 19% - 25% (RCP 4.5) and about 20% - 27% (RCP 8.5) compared to the yields recorded in 2022. This information aids researchers and policymakers in developing the best adaptation and mitigation strategies to ensure food security and sustainable development.

 

Keywords: Climate change; rainfall; rice yield projection; temperature

 

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*Corresponding author; email: azdawiyah87@gmail.com